从东亚危机看汇率制度选择  

The Choice of Monetary Exchange System in the East Asian Crisis

作　　者：程义全[1] 杨宗剑 

机构地区：[1]南开大学国际经济研究所

出　　处：《天津商学院学报》1999年第1期21-24,35,共5页Journal of Tianjin University of Commerce

摘　　要：汇率制度的选择不当是东亚国家宏观经济基本面的显示器和政策工具不能及时提醒决策者逐步调整长期的非均衡的一个核心原因。本文从出口需求冲击、进口供给冲击、国际资本流动冲击和国内冲击四个方面探讨了汇率制度的稳定性，分析了东亚国家汇率制度的失败和浮动汇率制度的易变性（成本），探讨了中国走向更为灵活的浮动汇率的风险和收益。The paper argues that one of the critical reason of current Asian crisis is the choice of monetary exchange system which abstains the decision maker from the long term nonequilibrium adjustment under the help of macroeconomic situation indicator and policy tools.Firstly,the paper discusses the stability of monetary exchange system from export demand shock,import supply shock,international capital flow shock and internal shock.Se condly,it analyses the failure of monetary exchange system of Asian countries and the vulnerability (cost) of floating exchange system.Finally,it considers the gains and risks of the reform aiming at floating system for China,which is helpful for the reform of Chinese exchange system and corresponding macroeconomic policy tools transformation.

关 键 词：东亚危机 汇率制度 稳定性 易变性 经济政策 

分 类 号：F820.2[经济管理—财政学] F831