汶川地震后中国及邻区地震活动趋势——地震能量释放特征的“振荡类比”研究  

The trend of seismic activities in China and adjacent regions after Wenchuan earthquake——Research of seismic energy release with "oscillation analogy"

作　　者：胡卫建[1] 尚红[1] 刘惠娟[2] 王夫运[3] 李平林[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震应急搜救中心,北京100049 [2]郑州大学物理工程学院,郑州450001 [3]中国地震局地球物理勘探中心,郑州450002

出　　处：《物理学报》2010年第6期4351-4358,共8页Acta Physica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大计划(批准号:90814012)资助的课题~~

摘　　要：根据欧亚地震带东段地质构造和地震活动特征,选取中国及邻区地震区域,对1897—2008年发生的824次震级Ms≥6.0地震的年度释放能量进行滤波和系统分析.结果显示,地震能量释放特征表现为周期性衰减振荡.通过振荡特征分析和计算,从理论上预测中国及邻区长期和中短期强震活动形势.计算结果表明,所选区域内大陆板块地震活跃时间应持续153.7a,如果从1897年开始,即到2050年结束.这一理论结果与中国两千多年历史地震资料分析结论一致,也为我国的地震活跃期持续150a左右提供了理论依据.同时,根据地震活动周期性特征进行初步预测检验,进而从理论上预测了未来中短期地震活动趋势.According to the geological structure and characteristics of seismic activity in the eastern segment of Eurasian seismic zone,China and adjacent regions are chosen as the research regions,where earthquakes of Ms≥6. 0 happened 824 times in total from 1897 to 2008. The sum of the yearly released energy is filtered and studied systematically. The results show that the release of seismic energy features a periodic damped oscillation. Through the oscillation analogy,we can forecast quantitatively the long-term and medium-and short-term seismic situations in China and adjacent regions. Theoretical analysis confirms that the earthquake vibrancy in the continental plates should last 153. 7 a,namely,1897—2050. Such a result is consistent with the conclusions from the analysis of Chinese historical seismic data collected for more than 2000 a,and it may be regarded as a theoretical basis that the periodic seismic activity lasts about 150 a in China and adjacent regions. According to the periodic characteristic of the seismic activity,we can forecast theoretically that the current active duration will close in 2010—2012,furthermore,the next active duration will begin near 2020—2021,and then end in 2040 around. Subsequently,the earthquake process will completely enter into a relatively quiet duration for over one century after 2050.

关 键 词：中国大陆及邻区 年度地震能量 强震活动预测 振荡类比 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]