岩土工程位移时间序列的组合预测研究  

Combination Forecasting of Displacement Time Series of Geotechnical Engineering

作　　者：尹利平[1] 刘金海[1] 柴海涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学煤矿安全开采技术湖南省重点实验室,湖南湘潭411201 [2]煤炭科学研究总院经济与信息研究所,北京100013

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2010年第10期86-90,共5页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

摘　　要：将组合预测方法用于岩土工程位移时间序列预测.结合实际观测数据,分别建立位移时间序列预测的GM(1,1)模型、Verhulst模型和趋势曲线模型.采用极小误差法确定各单一模型的权重,建立组合预测模型.应用表明,组合预测的精度高,为岩土工程位移预测提供了一种实用、可靠的方法.Combination forecasting method was applied to displacement time series forecasting of geotechnical engineering. Based on factual observation data, GM（1,1） model, Verhulst model and tendency curve mdoel for displacement time series forecasting of geotechnical en- gineering were established separately. The weight of each model was determined by using mininal error method, and combination forecasting model was established. The results show that combination forecasting has a higher precision, and is a practical and reliable method for displacement forecasting of geotechnical engineering.

关 键 词：岩土工程 位移时间序列 权重 组合预测 

分 类 号：TD325[矿业工程—矿井建设]