基于保险理论的输电可靠性裕度决策模型  

A Decision Model of Transmission Reliability Margin Based on Insurance Theory

作　　者：凡鹏飞[1] 张粒子[1] 麻秀范[1] 王睿[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市102206

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2010年第10期40-44,共5页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2008BAA13B11)

摘　　要：针对传统输电可靠性裕度(TRM)评估方法的不足,基于广义保险理论提出了TRM虚拟保险的概念,将TRM最优决策问题转化为虚拟保险的最优购买问题进行建模分析。在应用保险理论实现对可靠性和经济性广义量度的基础上,引入效用函数间接刻画决策者的可靠性偏好,运用保险资产选择理论建立决策模型,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟对不确定条件下模型的决策参数进行评估。IEEE30节点算例分析验证了该模型的有效性和自身特点。Focused on the shortcomings of traditional transmission reliability margin （TRM ） assessment method,a novel concept of TRM virtual insurance is put forward based on the generalized insurance theory. By application of this concept,the optimum decision-making problem of TRM assessment is reconstructed into an optimum decision-making problem of virtual insurance purchasing for constructing the model to analyze. On the basis that the generalized measurements of reliability and economy are realized by generalized insurance theory,the utility function is adopted to describe the reliability preference of decision-makers indirectly. The insurance assets choice theory is applied to establish the decision-making model. Moreover,uncertainty is considered by using Monte-Carlo simulation to evaluate the model parameters. A case study of the IEEE 30-bus system verifies the effectiveness and advantages of the model proposed.

关 键 词：输电可靠性裕度 决策模型 保险理论 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]