华南地区香蕉、荔枝寒害的气候风险区划  

Climatic risk zoning for banana and litchi's chilling injury in South China

作　　者：李娜[1] 霍治国[1] 贺楠[1] 肖晶晶[1] 温泉沛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2010年第5期1244-1251,共8页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAD04B03)资助

摘　　要：基于华南地区(广东、广西、福建)224个气象站点1951—2006年气候资料和香蕉、荔枝历史灾情资料,采用日最低气温≤5.0℃、持续日数≥3d寒害过程的积寒和表征香蕉、荔枝年度寒害的气候致灾风险信息,构建了基于气候变化背景下的寒害综合气候风险指标,编制了香蕉、荔枝寒害等级风险概率地理分布图和气候风险区划图,并评述了香蕉、荔枝寒害气候风险的区域分异规律.结果表明:随着气候变暖,研究区香蕉、荔枝抗寒性降低,寒害致灾风险增加;香蕉、荔枝寒害各等级气候风险概率均呈纬向分布.基于综合气候风险指数的大小将香蕉、荔枝寒害划分为高、中、低3个气候风险区,这为农业结构布局的调整提供了重要依据.Based on the 1951-2006 climatic observation data from 224 meteorological stations in South China （Guangdong Province,Guangxi Autonomous Region,and Fujian Province） and the historical information about the chilling injury losses of banana and litchi,the accumulated harmful chilling for the processes with minimum daily temperature ≤5.0 ℃ and more than 3 days was used to indicate the climatic risk of chilling injury during the whole growth season,and an integrated climatic index with the background of climate change was constructed. The maps of geographical distribution of climatic risk probability for each grade chilling injury,and of integrated climatic risk zoning for banana and litchi＇s chilling injury were drawn,and the spatial variation of climatic risk for banana and litchi＇s chilling injury was commented. The results indicated that in the study area,climate warming might lead to the decrease of cold resistance of banana and litchi,which could increase the disaster risk of chilling injury. The geographical distribution of climatic risk probability for banana and litchi＇s chilling injury showed a zonal pattern. According to the integrated climatic risk index,the banana and litchi＇s chilling injury region was divided into three risk types,i.e.,high risk,moderate risk,and low risk,which provided an important basis for the adjustment of agricultural production structure.

关 键 词：香蕉 荔枝 寒害 致灾因子 气候风险区划 

分 类 号：S426[农业科学—植物保护] S668.1S667.1