互联网社区与agent预期对标准扩散的影响研究  

Expectation and Community in Standard Diffusion

作　　者：鲜于波[1] 梅琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学工商管理学院,广东广州511430

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2010年第2期146-152,共7页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70673118)

摘　　要：该文分析了在agent能够内生互动形成社区的情况下,agent预期及其异质性对标准扩散的影响。该文采用了基于agent的计算经济学建模方法,agent能够根据收益最大的原则和偏好等因素选择自己需要互动的对象,同时个体行为也受到其真实社会交往邻域的影响,这里agent的预期采用适应性预期。研究结果表明:agent预期因素的加入使得标准扩散收敛到稳态的时间变长,不同标准并存的时间将持续更长时间;在标准扩散中,在先发优势不大或者预期调整速度较慢的情况下,预期能够克服先发优势,否则,先发优势仍然会在扩散中起主导作用。此外,agent的异质性预期、较低的预期调整速度以及新标准带来的较高收益使得新旧标准的过渡成为可能。This paper analyses the role of expectation in standard diffusion from the point of agent endogenous interaction or community.This paper uses the method of computational economics.In the model,agent will choose the agent or community to interact according utility maximization with the influence of agent neighborhoods.Agent expectation is adaptive.The simulation results show： agent expectation will make the time needed for the system converge to stable status longer;at the same time, the coexistence time of different standard will also be longer.In standard diffusion,expectation will overcome the influence of first move advantage when first move advantage is not big enough and the adjustment speed of expectation is slow.Besides,the heterogeneous expectation about the new standard and lower speed of expectation adjustment,the higher utility the new standard brings to customers will make the transition from the old standard to the new ones possible.

关 键 词：标准扩散 基于agent的计算经济学 互联网社区 预期 

分 类 号：TP27[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置] TP39[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]