用灰色预测模型预测中国自然科学期刊论文合著率指标的发展趋势  

Prediction of Developing Trend in the Co author Rate of Periodical Theses in Chinese Natural Science by Means of Gray Prediction Model

作　　者：钟旭[1] 黄晖[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆工学院图书馆

出　　处：《情报学报》1999年第1期91-94,共4页Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information

摘　　要：文章在１６万余组数据的基础上采用计算机辅助建立灰色预测模型的方法，成功的建立了中国自然科学各学科期刊论文合著率指标灰色预测模型。对该合著率指标发展趋势的预测结果表明，中国自然科学各学科期刊论文合著率指标将继续保持上升趋势，预计到２０００年中国自然科学各学科期刊论文总合著率指标将达到８０％。这对于我国科学技术的高速发展意义重大。文章还探讨了科研合作现象的产生机制。Based on 160,000 data,the article built successfully the gray prediction model of the coauthor rate target of periodical theses in every field of Chinese natural science by means of the computer aided calculation.It turned out that the coauthor rate of the theses is going on to keep rising trend and up to 80% by the year of 2000.It is important for high speed development of science and technology in our country.The article also discussed the producing mechanism of scientific and technical cooperation phenomenon.

关 键 词：灰色预测模型 中国 自然科学 期刊论文 合著率 

分 类 号：G257.3[文化科学—图书馆学]