能源消耗、经济增长和碳排放之间的关联分析——基于亚太八国面板数据的实证研究  

Causal Relationships among Energy Consumption,Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions——An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data for 8 Asia-Pacific Countries

作　　者：牛叔文[1,2] 丁永霞[1] 李怡欣[1] 罗光华[1] 牛云翥[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《中国软科学》2010年第5期12-19,80,共9页China Soft Science

基　　金：中国国际科技合作项目(2008DFA62040)

摘　　要：处理好发展与减排的关系现实意义重大。本文以亚太八国为对象,运用面板数据模型,分析1971-2005年间能耗、GDP和CO2排放的关系。结果表明,三者之间存在长期均衡关系。由此建立的面板回归模型显示,发达国家的碳排放基数和能源利用效率高,单位能耗和单位GDP排放的CO2低,而发展中国家则相反。我国的能耗和碳排放指标优于其它3个发展中国家,但次于发达国家。为在国际气候谈判中寻求主动,我国应积极转换能源结构,通过技术进步提高用能效率,促进节能减排。It is of great practical significance to regulate the relationship between economic growth and carbon emission reduction.This paper analyzes causality between energy consumption,GDP and carbon emissions for 8 Asia-Pacific countries from 1971 to 2005 using the panel data.The results indicate that,there are long-run equilibrium relationships between these variables.Panel regression models show that per capita carbon emissions level and energy efficiency in developed countries are higher than in developing countries,while CO2 emissions of per unit GDP and per unit energy consumption of the former are lower than the latter.The indexes of energy consumption and carbon emissions in China are better than the other three developing countries,but inferior to developed countries.For a more proactive in international climate negotiations,China should promote energy-saving and emission reduction through new energy use and technological progress.

关 键 词：亚太八国 能源消耗 碳排放 面板数据模型 面板误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]