考虑入库洪水不确定性的三峡水库汛限水位动态控制域研究  

The Dynamic Control Bound of Flood Limited Water Level Considering Inflow Uncertainty in Three Gorges Reservoir

作　　者：李响[1] 郭生练[1] 刘攀[1] 万民[1] 刘心愿[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《四川大学学报（工程科学版）》2010年第3期49-55,共7页Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Science Edition)

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划资助项目(2009BAC56B02;2008BAB29B09);水利部公益性行业科研专项(200701015);国家自然科学基金项目(50609017)

摘　　要：汛限水位动态控制域是水库实施汛限水位动态控制的基础与关键。考虑影响防洪调度风险的最重要风险源,即入库洪水预报误差及洪水过程线形状的不确定性,提出风险约束条件及其量化分析方法。将入库洪水不确定性、风险分析与汛限水位动态控制域的确定过程有机结合起来,利用预泄能力约束法和Monte-Carlo模拟方法推求三峡水库汛限水位动态控制域。在不增加防洪风险的前提下,三峡水库实施汛限水位动态控制可有效地提高中小洪水资源的利用效率,利用1～3d的洪水预报信息,三峡水库汛期可增发电量6.99×108～14.45×108kW·h。研究方法对其他水库实施汛限水位动态控制也有借鉴意义。The dynamic control bound of flood limited water level （FLWL） is a fundamental and key element for implementing reservoir FLWL dynamic control.The acceptable risk constraints and quantificational analysis of flood control operation were proposed by considering the most important risk sources,i.e.,reservoir inflow forecasting error and uncertainty of flood hydrograph shape.The inflow uncertainty,risk analysis and the process of dynamic control bound determination were incorporated organically,and a dynamic control bound of reservoir FLWL was calculated using forecasting pre-release and Monte-Carlo simulation methods.The application results of the Three Gorges Reservoir （TGR） showed that the dynamic control of FLWL can effectively increase middle and small flood water resources utilization rate without increasing flood control risk.The TGR could generate 6.99 × 10^8 ～ 14.45 × 10^8 kW·h extra hydropower energy during flood season by using 1 ～3 day inflow forecasting information.The proposed methods can also be applied to other reservoirs.

关 键 词：汛限水位 动态控制域 入库洪水不确定性 风险分析 三峡水库 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]