气温变暖对西北西风带冬季气温的影响分析  

Effect of Global Warming on Winter Temperature in Westerly of Northwest China

作　　者：郭江勇[1,2] 陈少勇[3] 高蓉[3] 郭忠祥[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃省庆阳市气象局,甘肃庆阳745000 [3]白银市气象局,甘肃白银730900

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2010年第1期175-181,共7页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40775057)资助

摘　　要：利用中国西北西风带139个气象站1961—2006年历年冬季气温资料,采用线性趋势分析、多项式拟合、EOF、REOF、Mann-Kendall、滑动t-检验、子波分析和功率谱分析等方法,分析了46a西北西风带冬季气温对气候变暖的响应。结果表明:①中国西北西风带冬季气温近46a增温率为0.55℃/10a.增温显著的地方是陕西西部、甘肃、宁夏、内蒙古大部、青海中北部-塔里木盆地。仅青海的河南州局地有显著的下降趋势。表明除青海高原局部地区外其余大部分区域增温显著,同步响应全球变暖。②大部分区域冬季气温的年际变化稳定性差,青海高原相对稳定。③冬季气温的演变在西风带一致性程度较高。从20世纪60年代中期开始发生降温-升温转型,1986年有一次显著突变,其后气温达到一个更显著的增暖时期,21世纪初略有回落;全区性的前10个偏热年,80%出现在20世纪90年代及以后,各分区的异常偏热年,90%也出现在1990年以后;气温异常变化存在5a左右的年际周期,在20a以上的气候变化层次上,气温趋势还处在偏高的位置。④冬季气温演变存在地域差异。一是蒙新区和陕甘宁青区南北变化相反;二是蒙陕甘宁区和青海新疆区东西变化相反。⑤根据REOF分析将该区冬季气温异常细分为蒙陕甘宁区、高原区、北疆区和南疆区4个分区。冬季气温的转折高原区有异于其他区域,高原区单调增温,无明显转折,而其他区基本一致,在70年代初期转为上升,90年代中期转为下降阶段;冬季气温的突变也是高原区有异于其他区域,高原区1997年发生一次突变,而其他区域则一致为1986年突变。The mean surface air temperature data over the years 1961—2006 of 193 stations within China northwestern arid and semi-arid area（CNASA）were used to analyze the response of the annual mean air temperature to global warming by methods of linear regression analysis,multinomial fitting,EOF,REOF,Mann-Kendall,Glide T-examination,wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis etc.The results show that：①The warming rate of CNASA annual temperature near 46 years was 055 per 10 years,responding synchronously to global warming.Temperature increased remarkably in western Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia,most of Inner Mongolia,mid-northern Qinghai to Tarim basin,except for a decreased trend in Henan district of Qinghai.②Most of the CNASA annual winter temperature was unstable,only that of Qinghai Plateau was relatively stable.③The temporal changes of winter temperature are similar in the westerly of northwestern China.Transition from temperature-decreasing-type to temperature-increasing-type started at mid-1960s,an abrupt change happened in 1986,since then temperature entered a remarkably warming period until falling at the beginning of 2000s.Eighty percent of the first 10 hot years in regions as a whole appeared in 1990s and after,and ninety percent of the sub-regional hot years also appeared after 1990.The anomaly change of temperature had periods about 5-year.The present temperature is at high position viewed from a 20-year or more variation level.④The spatial differences exist in winter temperature variation.The change is opposite in north and south of the Mongolia Xinjiang area and the Shanxi Gansu Ningxia Qinghai area,also opposite in west and east of the Mongolia Shanxi Gansu Ningxia area and the Qinghai Xinjiang area.⑤There are 4 sub-regions of winter temperature anomaly divided by REOF analysis;they are the Mongolia Shaanxi Gansu Ningxia area,the plateau area,the northern Xinjiang area and the southern Xinjiang area.The plateau area has no obvious transition in winter temperature,other than the other areas with

关 键 词：西北西风带 冬季气温 气候变暖 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]