塔里木河源流区近50a径流量与气候变化关系研究  

Relation between Climate Change and Runoff Volume in the Headwaters of the Tarim River during the Last 50 Years

作　　者：傅丽昕[1,2] 陈亚宁[1] 李卫红[1] 何斌[1] 徐长春[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所绿洲生态与荒漠环境重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]水利部新疆水利水电勘测设计研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2010年第1期204-209,共6页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：中国科学院重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-127);中国科学院西部行动计划项目(KZCX2-XB2-03);国家自然科学基金项目(40671014)共同资助

摘　　要：通过对近50a塔里木河源流区径流、温度、降水量的年代际分析,探讨了过去半个世纪塔里木河源流区气候变化及其对河川径流的影响。研究结果显示,在过去50a里,塔里木河三源流径流量总体呈现增加的趋势,尤其体现在20世纪90年代以后,丰水年出现次数较多;对径流和降水量与温度作相关分析可知,随着温度的逐年代升高,其对径流量的影响越来越显著。蒸发量随着温度的升高也在逐渐增大,但是降水量的增长速率远大于蒸发量的增长速率,所以即使蒸发量的增加也不足以使径流量减少。The authors analyzed the decadal variation of runoff,temperature,precipitation in the headwaters of the Tarim River during the last 50 years,so as to discuss the climatic change and its influence on river runoff.It was found out that the runoff volume of the three headwaters of the Tarim River generally showed increasing tendency in the past 50 years,especially,there were more high-water years after 1990s.Correlation analysis between precipitation,temperature and runoff showed that increasing temperature exerts more and more influence on runoff volume;both precipitation and evapotranspiration increase with the warming of temperature,but the increase rate of precipitation is far bigger,so the increasing evapotranspiration is insufficient to make the river runoff volume decreased.

关 键 词：气候变化 径流量 塔里木河三源流 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]