SRES A2情景下中国区域21世纪末平均和极端气候变化的模拟  

Projected Change in Mean and Extreme Climate over China in the Late 21st Century from PRECIS Under SRES A2 Scenario

作　　者：杨红龙[1,2] 许吟隆[2] 张镭[1] 潘婕[2] 陶生才[2] 

机构地区：[1]半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室/兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州730000 [2]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2010年第3期157-163,共7页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划课题(2007BAC03A02);气候变化对中国粮食生产影响评价系统研究(GYHY200806008)

摘　　要：利用Hadley气候预测与研究中心的区域气候模式系统PRECIS单向嵌套该中心全球海-气耦合气候模式HadCM3高分辨率的大气部分HadAM3H,分析了SRES A2情景下2071—2100年相对于气候基准时段(1961—1990年)中国区域的气候变化,包括气温和降水的年际、季节和日时间尺度的变化以及极端气候事件的变化趋势。模拟结果表明:气温呈明显增加趋势,其中新疆和东北地区增温明显。而降水表现了更大的年际变化和季节变化,冬季南方降水减少,但沿黄河流域的降水明显增加,夏季与冬季相比呈现出相反的趋势。此外,连续高温日数呈现增加趋势,而连续霜冻日数呈现减少趋势。连续湿日数也表现出一定的增加趋势。The PRECIS,a regional climate model system developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research,nested in one-way mode within the HadAM3H,a higher-resolution version of the atmospheric component of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3,was employed to analyze the future climate change in 2071-2100 under the SRES A2 scenario over China relative to the reference period of 1961-1990.The mean climate state as well as the frequency and intensity of daily extreme events were investigated at various temporal and spatial scales,with a focus on surface air temperature and precipitation.Regarding the interannual variation of projected temperature and precipitation over the whole integration period,we find that the temperature shows a persistently increasing trend,especially in Northwest China and Northeast China.The projected precipitation in the future shows generally greater amounts than in the reference run despite significant interannual variation.Based on the spatial distribution,the winter precipitation would decrease in the south of China while greatly increase around the Yellow River,the changes of precipitation in summer would be vice versa to winter.A substantial increase（decrease） of hot（frost） spells is projected along with increasing of maximum and minimum temperatures.Wet spells tend to be more frequent,accompanying the increase of precipitation amounts.

关 键 词：PRECIS SRES A2情景 极端事件 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]