北京地区1～4天花粉浓度预报的应用研究  

Applied Research on the 1-4 Day Pollen Concentration Forecast in Beijing Area

作　　者：张德山[1] 海玉龙[1] 冯涛[1] 吴振玲[2] 何海娟[3] 张姝丽[1] 储伟[1] 宛公展[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京市气象局,北京100089 [2]天津市气象局,天津300074 [3]北京协和医院变态反应科,北京100730

出　　处：《气象》2010年第5期128-132,共5页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：中国气象局气象新技术推广《花粉监测预报与服务项目成果推广》,项目编号:CMATG2008M29

摘　　要：漂浮在大气低层的植物花粉颗粒,可引发花粉过敏人群的免疫变态反应,也是一种常见病多发病,随着城市绿化系数的增大,近年来有加剧的趋势。使用北京市城区及周边郊县共计7个站点,1999—2005年度(3月1日至9月30日)逐日大气底层花粉实测浓度和同步地面气象资料,应用正交筛选回归方法,建立了不同站点1～4天花粉浓度的预报模式(均通过了F_a=0.01的F统计检验),经业务试验,效果较好,可为首都医院的变态反应门诊及花粉过敏患者提供花粉预测和预防服务。Immune allergy reaction of the sensitive population,which is a common and frequently occurring illness,is induced by the pollen granules floating in the lower atmosphere.The increment of urban afforestation ratio aggravates the disease dramatically during recent years.The prediction model of the pollen concentration for the future 1-4 days of different stations（it is above the 0.01 significance level of F-test） is established by using the 1999 - 2005（1 March to 30 September） daily data of monitoring pollen concentration in the lower atmosphere and the simultaneous surface meteorological data at 7 stations in Beijing and surrounding regions through the orthogonal selection regression method.The model was tested well and it can be used to the environmental meteorological service platform on trial,and provide prediction and prevention services（such as medication in advance） to the sanitary and epidemic institutions in the capital hospital and the patients as well.

关 键 词：花粉浓度 预报模式 花粉过敏症 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]