基于农用地分等成果的耕地需求量预测探析——以松溪县为例  

Arable Land Demand Forecast Based on Results of Agricultural Land Classification——Take the Case of Songxi County

作　　者：翁清光[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]福州市人民政府办公厅,福建福州350001 [2]福建师范大学城乡规划设计研究所,福建福州350007

出　　处：《沈阳师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第2期279-283,共5页Journal of Shenyang Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：福建省软科学项目(2005R054)

摘　　要：科学准确地预测耕地需求量是制定县(市)级土地利用总体规划的基础。从耕地利用结构、耕地质量及生产力水平,分析了松溪县耕地利用现状,并以松溪县农用地分等结果为基础,以用统计分析软件和GIS技术为支撑,通过各等别耕地的利用潜力、粮食单产、复种指数、粮作比、人口和粮食消费等指标的计算,进行预测目标年松溪县耕地的需求量。结果表明:应用农用地分等成果来预测耕地需求量比较切实当地的实际,在实际操作和应用中比其他方法更为简便、科学,可以为土地利用规划提供科学的依据。Based on the results of agricultural land classification,Songxi County,used the statistical analysis,support on statistical analysis software and GIS technology,Songxi county level through of the potential of other cultivated land,grain yields,multiple cropping index,compared of grain,as well as population and food consumption and other indicators of the forecast,the calculation of the target year Songxi to predict the demand for arable land.Its showed that： Application of agricultural land classification to predict the outcome of the demand for more effective land of local realities,and applications in practice is more convenient and science than other methods,land-use planning can provide a scientific basis.

关 键 词：耕地 需求量 预测 分等 松溪县 

分 类 号：O157[理学—数学]