一种区域种植业发展水平的度量方法及其应用--以重庆市万盛区石林镇为例  

A Measure Method and Its Application in the Development Level of Regional Plant Production—Taking Shilin Town at Wansheng District of Chongqing City as an Example

作　　者：李建国[1] 刘金萍[1,2] 刘丽丽[1] 郭晴晴[1] 窦贤明[3] 关冰[1] 程晓昀[1] 邵景安[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学地理科学学院,重庆400047 [2]GIS应用研究重庆市重点实验室,重庆400047 [3]中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院,江苏徐州221008

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2010年第3期201-207,共7页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：重庆市自然科学基金(9009)

摘　　要：随着经济的快速发展,工业化、城镇化的快速推进,农业问题日益突出,能否对区域种植业发展水平进行全面和客观的定量评价尤为重要。文章提出了区域种植业发展指数的概念并基于农产品产量波动系数、最小人均耕地面积、耕地压力指数构建了区域种植业发展水平的度量模型,并以重庆市万盛区石林镇为例,进行动态研究及预测,结果表明:石林镇种植业发展指数呈下降趋势,在未来5a内还有恶化的趋势。针对动态分析及预测结果,提出了相应的调控措施。With the rapid development of economy and advancement of industrialization and urbanization,agriculture problems are becoming increasingly obvious. It becomes particularly important whether we are able to make comprehensive and objective quantitative assessment on the development level of regional plant production. This paper presents the concept of regional plant production development index. And the measurement model for the development level of regional plant production was built based on the agricultural production fluctuation coefficient,minimum per capita cropland and pressure index on cropland. Taking Shilin Town at Wansheng District of Chongqing as an example,we carried on dynamic research and forecasting in its development level of regional plant production by the model. The results show that the development index in regional plant production of Shilin Town is taking in downward trend and such phenomenon may become even worse in the next five years. So we put forwards the corresponding adjusting and controling measures based on the dynamic analysis and forecasting results.

关 键 词：种植业发展指数 耕地变化 石林镇 

分 类 号：S344[农业科学—作物栽培与耕作技术]