基于证据理论的大型工程投融资群体决策模型  

Model of Financing Scheme Group Decisions under Large-scale Construction Engineering Projects Based on the Evidence Theory

作　　者：何洁[1] 周晶[1] 雷丽彩[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学工程管理学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《系统工程》2010年第3期19-25,共7页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70831002);南京大学研究生科研创新基金资助项目(2010CW09)

摘　　要：目前,在大型工程项目中,对前期的投融资方案进行决策已经成为了几乎所有大型工程建设前期准备的重要组成部分。一个大型工程项目融资决策的成败将直接影响到项目的实施及最后的运营。本文基于证据理论的基本思想,研究了在大型工程环境下,投融资方案选择的群体决策问题。通过对mass函数构造方法的改进,引入了相对权重矩阵的概念,从而解决了投融资决策时各决策专家权重设置的问题,并进一步通过大型工程建设项目中具体的算例验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。Currently, the decision-making for investment and financing scheme at the beginning phase has been a crucial part of almost all large-scale projects during the preparation period. The result of decision-making for investment and financing large-scale project will affect the final project implementation and operation. This essay which is based on basic idea of the evidence theory performs research on the issues of group decision about investment and financing scheme selection under the environment of the large-scale project. After improving the methodology of mass function structure, the concept of relative weight matrix has been introduced and utilized to solve the problems on weight setting of each specialist who makes the decision for investment and financing. Additionally, a real-life project in the field of construction has been taken as an example to demonstrate the feasibility and practicability of the evidence theory application.

关 键 词：证据理论 大型工程 投融资 群体决策 MASS函数 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]