资本市场发展的储蓄分流效应——中国实证研究  

The Deposit Diversion Effect of Capital Market Development Empirical Study of China

作　　者：郭伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院

出　　处：《统计教育》2010年第6期23-27,共5页Statistical education

基　　金：教育部人文社科重点研究地2006年度重大研究项目"信用扩张与宏观经济波动"(批准号:06JJD790034)阶段性成果;国家社会科学基金项目"商业银行与资本市场的关系研究"(批准号:03CJY022)的阶段性成果;中国人民大学研究生科学研究基金项目(编号22386002)的支持

摘　　要：资本市场的发展使储蓄分流成为可能,从而对商业银行的储蓄存款业务产生影响。本文首先梳理了储蓄分流的概念、特征及产生原因,并详细描述了我国储蓄分流的发展过程,提出问题:中国商业银行的储蓄分流现象是否由资本市场发展引起的。第二部分通过对中国17家商业银行及资本市场2004-2008年的面板数据做固定效应模型回归,得出实证结论:我国A股市场流通市值的变动显著的负向影响商业银行存款增长率。表明近年来中国资本市场发展是储蓄分流现象的主要原因之一。The development of capital market makes the savings diversion possible,thus influencing the deposit of commercial banks.The paper dresses the concept,features and reasons of the deposit in the first place,and describes in detail the development process of the deposit diversion in China.It puts forward the following questions：whether or not the deposit divesion effect of China＇s commercial banks is brought by the capital market development.In the second part of the paper,the regression of the ficed effect model is made to the 17 commercial banks and the pandl data of the capial market from 2004to 2008.It reaches the following empirical conclusions：the change of the market value of the A Stock Market obviously exerts negative impact to the deposit increase rate of the commercial banks.I also indicates that the development of China＇ capital market is one of the main reasons of the deposit diversion.

关 键 词：资本市场 商业银行存款 储蓄分流 面板数据模型 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]