劳动力负担与我国经济增长  

Labor Burden and Economic Growth in China

作　　者：李魁[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2010年第6期74-84,共11页Finance & Economics

摘　　要：改革开放以来,劳动力负担的减轻产生了人口红利并促进了中国经济增长。长期而言,劳动力负担每降低1个百分点,促使人均产出增加0.176个百分点。短期而言,劳动力负担对经济增长的作用不显著。劳动力负担对经济增长的效应主要由快速下降的少儿抚养负担解释。但随着少儿抚养负担的稳定和老龄化的加速,未来劳动力负担变化将由老年赡养负担主导,随之引起的经济效应将发生改变。为此,应抓住剩余30年的战略机遇期,利用人口红利期积累的成果迅速推进人口结构优势向质量优势转变。The reducing of labor burden has given the demographic dividend and promoted economic growth in China since 1978.The co-integration test shows that one percentage reducing in labor burden can increase 0.176% in per capita output in the long run.In the short run,the effect of labor burden on economic growth is not significant.Changes of the labor burden have a double effect on economic growth by three mechanisms of labor releasing,human capital investment and resources transfer.The reducing of labor burden is mainly interpreted by children’s dependency burden.The dependency burden of the old would be dominant over the future change in the labor burden and the economic effects caused by it would change with the stability of children’s dependency burden and the acceleration of aging.At present,we should pay great attention to the strategic opportunities remaining 30 years and promote the structural advantage to the quality advantage based on the accumulation during the demographic dividend.and therefore,we must grasp the strategic opportunity of the remaining 30 years to rapidly transform the advantage of population structure into quality advantage by virtue of population dividend accruement effects.

关 键 词：经济增长 人口红利 劳动力负担 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] F123[经济管理—国民经济]