车尔臣河流域气候变化及其对河流径流量的影响  

The Climatic Changes of Qarqan River Basin and Its Impact on the Runoff

作　　者：阿依努尔·买买提[1] 瓦哈甫·哈力克[1,2] 杨晓东[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院 [2]绿洲生态教育部重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《新疆农业科学》2010年第5期996-1001,共6页Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40761021);2007年度人事部留学人员择优重点项目;新疆大学绿洲生态重点实验室项目(XJDX0201-2007-02)

摘　　要：【目的】为了探讨车尔臣河流域多年气候变化对其河流径流量的影响。【方法】运用时间序列和多元线性回归的方法对且末县水文资料（1956-2006年）和气候数据（1956-2006年）进行了分析。【结果】近50年来,车尔臣河流域降水量增加了14.6 mm、气温增加了1℃、径流量增加了1.6 m^3/s;对车尔臣河径流量影响的气候因子中降水量和气温的相对影响力达到59%,而其他气候因子的影响力仅为41%。【结论】近50a来,车尔臣河流域年均降水量、气温和河流径流量均呈现出上升趋势。降水量与径流量的变化存在显著的耦合关系,各气候因子中,降水量和气温是影响径流量变化的主要因素。【Objective and Method】This paper conducted a deep research on the climatic changes of Qarqan river baisn and its impact on the Qarqan river runoff by applying time serial analysis and multivariate regression analysis via using the Qarqan river＇s water data and climatic data（1956～2006）.【Result】During the past 50 years,annual precipitation has increased 14.6mm,annual air temperature has increased 1°C and annual runoff has increased 1.6 m^3/s.Among all the climatic factors influencing the annual runoff,annual precipitation and annual air temperature are the most significant factors with the influence of 59%,while the influence of other climatic factors is only 41%.【Conclusion】During the past 50 years annual precipitation,temperature and river runoff are showing a rising tendency.There are notable coupling relationship between precipitation and runoff change.Precipitation and air temperature are the most significant factors among all the climatic factors.

关 键 词：车尔臣河流域 气候变化 河流径流量 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]