天津滨海地区风暴潮极值增水漫滩情景展示及风险评估  

RISK ASSESSMENT AND FLOODPLAIN SCENARIOS OF STORM SURGE OF TIANJIN BINHAI AREA

作　　者：谢翠娜[1] 胡蓓蓓[1,2] 王军[1] 陈晶晶[1] 许世远[1] 刘耀龙[1] 叶明武[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200062 [2]天津师范大学城市与环境科学学院,天津300387

出　　处：《海洋湖沼通报》2010年第2期130-140,共11页Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730526);上海市科技启明星项目(09QA1401800);天津师范大学博士基金(52X09019)资助

摘　　要：在综合分析天津风暴潮灾特征基础上,利用天津海河闸验潮站40a的年最高潮水位资料,结合天津滨海地区历史沉降数据,对潮水位进行修正。应用耿贝尔频率分析方法、P-Ⅲ型概率分析法对海河闸验潮站年极值潮水位(地面沉降修订后)进行概率计算,二者拟合度优良,耿贝尔频率分析结果较为精确。研究显示,百年一遇风暴潮水位为大沽高程4.80 m(地面沉降修订后),千年一遇风暴潮水位为大沽高程5.34 m(地面沉降修订后)。运用ArcGIS软件对不同重现期下的风暴潮进行静水漫滩展示。对比可知,在理想化静水状态下,对于同一重现期的潮灾,考虑防潮堤(地面沉降修订后)比忽略防潮堤造成的潮灾影响明显减弱。在此基础上,结合TM影像解译的研究区各类土地利用类型对百年一遇风暴潮灾进行风险损失评估,结果表明:百年一遇风暴潮灾影响范围为149.16 km2,受影响人口为2.59万。潮灾造成的经济总损失约100 971.30万元,其中室内家庭财产损失约4 484.50万元,公共服务设施财产损失约62 231.50万元,种植业、海产、盐田损失约19 418.70万元。Based on integrated analysis of features of storm surge in the coastal area of Tianjin,considering the land subsidence,the annual maximum tidal level data of Haihe River sluice tide gauge station in Tianjin from 1966 to 2005 was revised.The extreme high level of storm surges in different return periods were calculated by Gumbel distribution and P-III distribution（revised under land subsidence）.It was found that Gumbel distribution was more accurate than P-III distribution.The extreme high level was 4.80m（Dagu Height System,revised under land subsidence） once a century and 5.34m（Dagu Height System,revised under land subsidence） once a millennium.Inundation of storm surge was displayed in different return periods by GIS technology.The impact by storm surge was significantly reduced when the coastal dykes were built.Based on land use types of the study area interpreted from TM imagery of 2008,the risk and loss of the storm surge once a century were calculated.The results showed that the affected area was about 149.16km^2;the affected population reached 2.59 Million.Taking social and economic data in 2007 as the baseline,the economic loss caused by the storm surge once a century was about 1 009.713 million RMB in all,in which the loss of interior family property,public services facilities,and planting industry,sea farming and salt field were respectively 44.845 million RMB,622.315 million RMB,and 194.187 million RMB.

关 键 词：天津滨海地区 风暴潮 漫滩情景 风险评估 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]