基于灰色动态GM模型与计算机模拟的丽江旅游前景预测  

Lijiang Tourism Prediction Based on the Gray Dynamic GM Model and Computer Simulation

作　　者：蒋蓉华[1] 刘曲华[1] 焦俊刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学管理学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第13期7116-7118,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：2008年国家社会科学基金项目(08BMZ042)

摘　　要：[目的]以丽江旅游业为例,建立旅游前景预测体系,解决旅游区相关工作难点。[方法]首先构造丽江市旅游市场的动态预测反应模型,通过灰色关联模型GM(1,1)和时间序列法,利用计算机模拟程序进行实际的模型操作,预测丽江市旅游前景并对预测结果进行评价。[结果]2009～2011年丽江市旅游业总收入模型灰参数a为0.5723,内控参数u为0.3937,x(t+1)=-0.5633exp(-0.5723t)+0.6880;2009～2011年丽江市旅游业接待总人数模型灰参数a为-0.1256,内控参数u为344.3260,x(t+1)=3102.4835exp(0.1256t)-2741.2835。2个模型的检验结果表明拟合程度很好,同时,预测出丽江市旅游业2011年将达到或超过130亿元的总收入,旅游接待总人数将突破880万人次。[结论]该预测体系对其他各旅游区在获取信息不完整的情况下,可进行较为精准的预测。[Objective] Taken the Linjiang tourism as an example, tourism forecast system was established, difficulties related to the work of tourist area were solved. [Method] Dynamic predicted response model of Lijiang tourism market was established, through the gray correlation model GM （1,1） and time-series method, using a computer simulation program for the actual model of operation, Lijiang tourism prospects were predicted and predicting results were evaluated. [Result] Total revenue of model gray parameter of Lijiang tourism a= 0.572 3 from 2009 to 2011, internal control parameters u=0.393 7, x（t＋1）=-0.563 3exp（-0.572 3t）＋0.688 0; Total reception numbers of model gray parameter of Lijiang tourism a= 0.125 6, internal control parameters u=344.326 0, x（t＋1）=3 102.483 5exp（0.125 6t）-2 741.283 5. Test results of two models showed that fitting degrees were good, and at the same time predicted that total revenue of Lijiang tourism reached 13 000 000 000, and total reception numbers reached 8 800 000.[Conclusion] This predicted system can carry out precision forecast for other tourist areas when cannot get all the information.

关 键 词：灰色动态GM模型 计算机模拟 丽江市 

分 类 号：TP399[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]