基于逐步回归分析的桔小实蝇种群数量变动及其影响因子的研究  

Study on the Population Quantity Variations of Bactrocera dorsalis on the Basis of Stepwise Regression Analysis

作　　者：张丽莲[1] 杨林楠[1] 杨仕生 

机构地区：[1]云南农业大学基础与信息工程学院,云南昆明650201 [2]云南省建水县植保站,云南建水654300

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第12期6251-6252,6268,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD10A14)

摘　　要：[目的]研究影响桔小实蝇种群变动的显著影响因子。[方法]利用逐步回归分析方法对云南建水县桔小实蝇种群数量变动的规律及影响其发生的气象因子进行分析,并建立回归模型,最后通过云南建水县2004～2006年数据对回归模型进行回检。[结果]影响桔小实蝇发生量的主要气象因子为相对湿度、月最低气温和降雨量。[结论]该研究为桔小实蝇发生时期、发生量以及发生高峰期的预测提供了参考。[Objective]The research aimed to study the significant influence factors of the population quantity variations of Bactrocera dorsalis.[Method]Using stepwise regression analysis,the population quantity variation laws of Bactrocera dorsalis in Jianshui County of Yunnan Province and the meteorological factors that caused its occurrence were analyzed.And the regression model was built.And the regression model was tested on the basis of the data in Jianshui County of Yunnan Province during 2004-2006.[Result]The main meteorological factors that influenced the occurrence of Bactrocera dorsalis were relative humidity,the lowest monthly temperature and rainfall.[Conclusion]This study will provide certain reference for the prediction researches on the time,quantity,and peak of Bactrocera dorsalis＇ occurrence.

关 键 词：桔小实蝇(Bactrocera dorsalis) 逐步回归分析 气候因子 

分 类 号：S436.66[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]