沈阳地区气候跃变对农业生产的影响  

Impact of Climate Jump on the Agricultural Production in Shenyang

作　　者：刁军[1] 董晓明[1] 刘凤芝[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省沈阳市东陵区气象局,辽宁沈阳110168

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第12期6349-6352,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：采用常规数理统计线性回归、标准偏差对沈阳地区气候变化做定量分析。结果表明,降水量趋势减少155mm,以夏秋季贡献最大;气候跃变之后平均减少43mm;春季降水变率增加,春旱几率提高;第一场透雨限制春季播种的时间。气温趋势升高1.3℃,主要体现在春冬季;无霜期延长约13d;作物生长季积温趋势增加290℃,气候跃变之后平均增加178℃。气候变暖这种趋势使终霜日提前结束,作物播种期适时早播成为可能,对农业生产是有利的;降水量的减少、第一场透雨出现时间后延和不稳定,对作物生长和播种不利,成为农作物正常生长和产量稳定提高的限制因素。Using conventional mathematical statistics,linear regression and the standard deviation,the quantitative analysis was made on the climate changes in Shenyang.The results showed that the trend of precipitation reduced 155 mm,which was made the greatest contribution by summer and autumn.It decreased 43 mm on the average after the climate jump.The precipitation variability in spring increased and drought risk in spring increased.The first soaking rain limited the spring planting time.The temperature trend raised 1.3 ℃,mainly in spring and winter.The frost-free period extended about 13 d.The accumulated temperature trends in crop growing season increased 290 ℃ and it had an average increase of 178 ℃ after the climate jump.This trend of climate warming made the end of last frost advanced.Early sowing of crops suitably was possible,which was beneficial for agricultural production.The precipitation decrease,the time delay and instability of the first soaking rain were unfavorable for crop growth and seeding.And they became the factors that constrained the normal growth and stabile yield raise of crops.

关 键 词：气候跃变 农业 线性回归 标准偏差 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]