基于业务中尺度模式的配料法强降水定量预报  

An ingredient-based operational heavy rain quantitative forecast system

作　　者：唐晓文[1] 汤剑平[1] 张小玲 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学学院中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室,南京210093 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《南京大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第3期277-283,共7页Journal of Nanjing University（Natural Science）

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2004CB418301);国家自然科学基金(40730948;90715031);2005年博士点专项科研基金(20050284035);江苏省自然科学基金(BK99020);行业专项GYHY200906011

摘　　要：一种基于国家气象中心业务中尺度模式的配料法(ingredients-based methodology)强降水预报方法已经研究完成,并投入业务试运行.该方法依据深厚湿对流系统长时间的维持将产生强降水这一配料法的预报原理,根据中国不同区域的天气特点,选取了对强降水(≥25 mm)有显著影响的四类因子(水汽因子、动力因子、不稳定因子及热力因子),在一定的物理条件约束下,利用经验和统计相结合的方法建立了"配料"综合指数与强降水之间的关系.该方法以国家气象中心业务中尺度数值模式MM5(PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model)的预报场作为原始资料计算配料,再根据配料法预报方程作出全国737个基准站和基本站未来24h强降水的分级预报(25 mm^50 mm,≥50 mm).通过2004-2007年夏季MM5降水预报与配料法降水预报的对比发现,配料法降水预报优于MM5模式降水预报,具有较高的实用价值.An ingredient-based heavy rain quantitative forecast method based on the operational mesoscale numerical model is proposed and put into quasi-operational use in the National Meterological Center（NMC）.Based on the principal that long-lasting deep convective system could lead to heavy rain,a group of variables,or say,ingredients that have significant influence on the occurrence of heavy rain are selected according to the different climate background in different regions of China.The selected variables are then divided into four categories according to their different physical characters.Under those certain physical constraints,the actual effects of these variables are converted into a non-dimensional value,which could be used as an indicator for the forecast of heavy rain.This system uses the output of MM5 operationally used by NMC,and produces daily forecast of heavy rain for total 737 stations over China＇s mainland.Comparing the forecast with MM5＇s precipitation forecast in the summer during the period of 2004～2007,the skill score of ingredient-based method is superior to MM5＇s forecast.This new method is therefore of great value in practical use.

关 键 词：配料法 强降水预报 动力-统计释用 

分 类 号：P456.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]