矿业系统安全事故周期分析及预测研究  

Study on the Periodicity Analyses and Forecast of Mining System Safety Accidents

作　　者：李莹莹[1] 叶义成[1] 吕垒[1] 黄军[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学资源与环境工程学院冶金矿产资源高效利用与造块湖北省重点实验室,武汉430081

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2010年第6期40-41,43,共3页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

摘　　要：利用季节指数预测理论,建立矿业系统安全事故预测模型,预测事故死亡人数,并对预测结果的拟合度和趋势变化做出相应的解析。研究结果表明,季节指数周期预测模型,既能解决事故指标序列不规则性周期波动,又能很好地预测其发展趋势,对矿业安全管理决策和事故预防具有重大意义。The seasonal index forecast theory is applied to set up accident forecast model of mining system and forecast the death toll and also the degree of fitting and the trend of changes are relatively analyzed. The results show that the seasonal index prediction model which can not only resolve the problem about the irregular length of the period in the series of incident indicator, but also forecast the trend well. It is of great significance to make a decision and prevent safty accidents in the management of mining.

关 键 词：安全事故 矿业系统 季节指数预测 周期性 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F407.1[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X936