中小型原水河渠污染事故危害度应急评价模型  

Emergency assessment model for the hazard extent of water pollution accidents in small and medium sized rivers

作　　者：朱明[1] 李永[1] 李嘉[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610065

出　　处：《水科学进展》2010年第3期405-412,共8页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：四川省科技厅科技支撑资助项目(2008SZ0158)~~

摘　　要：为了对中小型原水河渠污染事故危害影响程度进行综合评价,利用污染事故案例样本资料,在提出原水污染事故危害度概念基础上,归纳影响中小型原水河渠污染事故危害度的直接与间接影响因素,应用粗糙集理论与方法,对间接影响因素进行重要性分析、冗余约简及重要度权重计算,综合直接与间接影响因素的作用,构建中小型原水河渠污染事故的应急评价模型。以成都市原水河渠为例,设计模拟污染事故情景,对所构建模型进行分析,结果表明,模型能够反映中小型原水河渠污染事故的危害影响程度。所构建模型适用于中小型原水河渠污染事故的应急评价,可为应急响应决策提供支撑信息。An emergency assessment model is developed for the hazard extent of water pollution accidents in small and medium sized rivers.The model development uses the concept of the hazard extent of water pollution accidents and the result of typical case studies.The rough set theory is applied to analyze the importance of indirect factors,eliminate the redundancy,calculate the significance of weight,and integrate the influence of both direct and indirect factors.The model is applied to a river in Chengdu city.Different water pollution scenarios are designed for the model simulations.Results show that the model is capable of assessing the hazard extent of water pollution accidents in small and medium sized rivers.Thus,the model is able to provide the valuable information for decision-making during the emergency of water pollution accidents.

关 键 词：中小型原水河渠 水污染 危害度 评价模型 粗糙集理论 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]