基于两点估计法的电力系统静态电压稳定概率分析  

Probabilistic analysis of static voltage stability in power systems based on two-point estimate method

作　　者：侯学勇[1] 鞠平[1] 付红军[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学能源与电气学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河南电力调度通信中心,河南郑州450052

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第3期347-352,共6页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2004CB217901);国家杰出青年科学基金(50725723)

摘　　要：为了进行电压稳定度的定量分析尤其是适应概率分析的需要,提出了静态电压稳定广义裕度指标,该指标不仅能够定性判断稳定性而且能够定量描述不稳定程度.将两点估计(TPE)法引入静态电压稳定的概率分析中,针对电力系统中电源侧参数和负荷侧静态特性参数等存在的不确定性因素,将功率差裕度指标看成待求随机变量,通过计算它的统计特征如均值和标准差,从而计算得到系统的静态电压稳定概率.通过算例,与蒙特卡罗仿真(MCS)法进行了对比,结果表明该方法是有效的,在精度相当的情况下可以大大节省计算时间.For the quantitative analysis of voltage stability,especially for meeting the requirement of adaptation to its probabilistic analysis,a generalized margin index for static voltage stability （SVS） is proposed. The index can be employed to qualitatively judge the stability and quantitatively describe the degree of instability. The two-point estimate method was introduced into the probabilistic analysis of SVS. With regard to the uncertainty of parameters of power sources and load in power systems,the generalized index of the power difference margin was regarded as a stochastic variable to be solved. Its statistical characteristic values,such as the mean value and the standard deviation,were calculated so as to obtain the probability of the static voltage stability. The results of a calculation example were compared with those of the Monte-Carlo simulation method. It is concluded that the proposed method is valid,and that it can greatly save time while maintaining an equivalent precision.

关 键 词：静态电压稳定 概率分析 两点估计法 负荷模型 

分 类 号：TM712[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]