对外直接投资缓解贸易失衡的实证研究——以20世纪80年代日美贸易失衡为例  

The Empirical Research on FDI Outflow's Alleviation Effect on Trade Imbalance——An Example of Japan-US Trade Imbalance in 80s of 20th Century

作　　者：仲鑫[1] 马光明[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2010年第5期12-17,共6页Statistical Research

摘　　要：当前中国正面临金融危机导致的新一轮贸易摩擦,其产生根源是中国对主要出口国不断加剧的贸易失衡。而传统财政货币和汇率政策对缓解贸易失衡均有一定局限性。许多国际经济学经典模型都指出对外直接投资可能具有减小投资国贸易顺差的作用,同时,一个基于协整技术的贸易差额决定模型证明,日本20世纪80年代中期后的对外直接投资对减小日美贸易顺差具有显著作用。我国可以利用当前人民币升值、外汇储备大量累积和世界范围内的相对宽松货币政策等机遇加快对外直接投资,在促进企业国际化的同时适当缓解贸易失衡以应对贸易摩擦。Recently China is facing a new wave of trade conflict resulted from the financial crisis,and the source is the accumulating trade imbalance with main exporting countries.The traditional financial,currency and exchange rate policies have limitations in decreasing the trade imbalance.A lot of classic international economics models have pointed out that the FDI outflow may have a decreasing effect on the trade surplus for the investing country,and a trade balance model based on co-integration technique also proves that Japan＇s FDI outflow indeed cast an obvious influence on the decrease of its trade balance after the middle of 80s in the 20th century.China may take Japan as a model to prompt its FDI outflow,and take the current chance of the currency appreciation,the large accumulation of foreign exchange reserve and the global comparatively easy monetary policies to decrease the trade imbalance,alleviate the trade conflict and help its TNCs＇ globalization.

关 键 词：贸易摩擦 对外直接投资 贸易失衡 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]