我国GDP对投资的高依赖在省一级的具体表现——几省“固定资产投资/GDP”已接近100%  

Over-Dependence of GDP on Investment at the Provincial Level in China——FAI/GDP approaching 100% in Some Provinces

作　　者：孙天琦[1,2] 袁静文[3] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学中国西部经济发展研究中心,陕西西安710069 [2]中国人民银行西安分行金融研究处,陕西西安710075 [3]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2010年第3期25-28,共4页Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(2009JJD790034)

摘　　要：对于一个省来说,用支出法核算GDP并不科学。作为替代,"固定资产投资/GDP"可粗略估计投资在GDP中的份量。吉林等个别省份2009年固定资产投资已经大于GDP的现象须引起重视,关键在于要分析固定资产投资是否真实,是否有虚报问题。从国际来看,世界各国在经济发展中都经历过高度依赖投资阶段,并且投资率呈现一定的顺周期特征。对于中国尤其是中西部地区GDP对投资的过度依赖问题,应着力推进经济增长方式的转变,防止政府大量转移投资、补贴却没有诱导出吸纳就业的产业,没有促进该地区人均收入水平的提高。It is not scientific to calculate the GDP of a province with the expenditure approach. As an alternative, the ratio of FAI （ fixed asset investment） - to - GDP can be used to roughly estimate the share of investment in GDP. However, attention should be given to the phenomena that the FAI was higher than GDP in Jilin and other provinces in 2009. The key is to analyze whether the FAI is real and there is a misreporting problem. Internationally, many countries have experienced the phase of over- dependence on investment so that the investment ratio demonstrates a given proeyelieal feature in their economic development. With the problem of over - dependence of GDP on investment in China, especially in central and western China, great efforts should be made to boost the transition of the economic growth modes in order to avoid the fact that the government transfers the investment and subsidies in large quantity instead of inducing industries providing job opportunities and propelling the rise in the per capita income level in the regions.

关 键 词：GDP核算方法 支出法 固定资产投资 投资率 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]