甘肃省能源消费与经济增长实证分析  

An Empirical Research:the Relationship between Economy Growth and Energy Consumption in Gansu Province

作　　者：秦静[1] 牛叔文[1] 孙红杰[1] 胡莉莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2010年第3期136-141,共6页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：中国国际科技合作项目(2008DFAb2040)

摘　　要：近年来,甘肃经济呈现稳定快速的增长势头,同时与经济增长密切相关的能源消耗量也居高不下。利用协整理论和Granger因果关系检验,以1985—2007年甘肃省能源消费总量和GDP数据为基础,对能源消费与经济增长的关系进行了探讨。结果表明,甘肃能源消费与GDP之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,并且存在从能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系。能源节约将是未来甘肃经济总量增长的源泉。为了保持甘肃经济持续、快速、健康的发展,必须综合运用各种措施手段,通过政策的最佳组合实现能源消费与经济增长的协调发展。Energy development and utilization play an important role in Gansu＇ s economic growth. During more than past 20 years, energy use efficiency has been improved greatly, but there is still a large potential for en- ergy-saving and emission reduction. Using the methods of co-integration analysis and Granger causality, the paper analyzes the relation between economic growth and energy consumption of Gansu Province from 1985 to 2007. The empirical results show that there is a stable causal relation between GDP and energy consumption in the long run. Energy consumption contributed to Gansu＇ s economic growth. In the future, relying on scientific and technological progress and promoting industrial structure upgrading, energy industry should be developed further synchronously in order to achieve energy-saving and emission reduction and sustainable development.

关 键 词：能源消费 经济增长 协整 因果关系 甘肃省 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济]