Palmer旱度模式在渭北旱塬泾惠渠灌区的应用研究  

Research on application of Palmer drought model in Jinghuiqu irrigation area

作　　者：刘招[1] 燕爱玲[2] 乔长录[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学水与发展研究院,陕西西安710064 [2]陕西省水利厅咨询中心,陕西西安710004

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2010年第3期259-264,共6页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：国家外国专家局;教育部高等学校学科创新引智计划项目(B08039)

摘　　要：依据泾惠渠灌区的水文气象历史资料,应用待定系数和回归方法,建立了适用于泾惠渠灌区的Palmer旱度模式。将该旱度模式应用于灌区干旱系列特征分析,分析结果给出不同干旱程度可能发生的频率及年内分布,验证了灌区有较明显的旱化倾向及冬灌期和春灌期大旱的出现机率较大等特征,这些均与灌区多年来的实际干旱情况相符,表明了所建立的Palmer旱度模式合理,具有较明确的物理意义且能够反映灌区的干旱特征。Based on long series of hydrology and meteorology data of Jinghuiqu irrigation district at the dry area of north bank of the Weihe River,Palmer drought model suitable for the area was developed by undetermined coefficient method and regression method.Then the drought model was applied for drought characteristic analysis of Jinghuiqu irrigation district,and the frequency of different degree of drought and its distribution in a year was given,and some valuable conclusion was drawn.For example,a severe drought could be arise in winter irrigation period and spring irrigation period,and the drought trend of the irrigation area was also proved.All these results are coincident with actual drought situation of the irrigation area for many past years.Therefore,the Palmer drought model developed for the irrigation area was correct,with a definite physical meaning and can reflect the drought characteristics of the area.

关 键 词：干旱 Palmer旱度模式 干旱指数 泾惠渠灌区 

分 类 号：S165.22[农业科学—农业气象学]