基于短期气象预报的输电设备维修风险分析方法  

Method for maintenance risk analysis of transmission facility based on short-term meteorologic forecast

作　　者：夏莹[1] 周家启[1] 熊小伏[1] 张荣海[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室,重庆400030

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2010年第11期44-47,共4页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50777068)~~

摘　　要：输电设备由于所处地理区域的不同而时常跨越多个气候区,气候因素对系统的可靠性指标具有不可忽视的影响。在制定输电设备维修计划时需综合考虑维修期间被维修设备和其他设备所在的气候条件对维修风险带来的影响。建立了考虑不同气象条件下的输电设备维修风险评估模型,在获知输电网络短期气象预报信息基础上,可对预定维修计划进行风险分析,并通过比较量化的EENS指标获得更优的维修计划。Since the transmission facilities often extend across multi-climatic districts due to locating in different geographic regions and weather factors have unneglectable effect on the reliability index of power system,the weather conditions of the locus of both the facilities being maintained and other facilities affecting on maintenance risk should be considered when constituting maintenance plans.I n this paper,m aintenance risk assessment model of transmission facilities considering different meteorological conditions is established,r isk analysis of maintenance plan prearranged is put up based on obtaining short-term meteorologic forecast information of transmission network,and then more favorable maintenance plan can be achieved through comparison of EENS index quantified.

关 键 词：输电设备 气候因素 气象预报 维修 风险分析 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TM72[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]