海南文昌市土壤有效磷时空变异特征及环境风险分析  

Spatio-temporal Variability of Soil Available Phosphorus and Environment Risk Analyze of Wenchang

作　　者：张冬明[1] 吴鹏飞[1] 郝丽虹[1] 张永发[1] 漆智平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国热带农业科学院热带作物品种资源研究所,农业部热带作物种质资源利用重点开放实验室,海南儋州571737

出　　处：《土壤通报》2010年第3期728-732,共5页Chinese Journal of Soil Science

基　　金：海南省重点科技计划项目(080402);海南省自然科学基金项目(808197);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(基于GIS的海南岛土壤质量时空演化研究,YJS-2008-S034)资助

摘　　要：应用GIS与地统计学相结合的方法,对比1985、2000、2008年三个时期全区土壤有效磷含量,分析其20多年来时空变异特征并对其进行环境风险评价。结果表明:自1985年至2008年的23年间,有效磷在空间分布上有较大的变化,随时间整体呈现持续增长的趋势,三个年代土壤有效磷的平均值分别为9.31、23.11和33.31mgkg-1;从空间插值来看三个年代的变异函数理论模型分别符合椭球模型、指数模模型和高斯模型;按照全国统一划分的土壤有效磷含量的分级标准来看各个级别各年代的差异较显著;利用Hesketh等提出了土壤磷素淋溶的"突变点"原理结合本研究的实际情况对文昌市土壤有效磷进行了风险分析,得出了以等级面积百分比为变量的一元二次方程最佳拟合方程,并预测出全市超过50%的土壤面积出现磷淋溶的年份有22年,并且7年后将有超过60%的土壤面积出现磷的淋溶。By the method of combining Geographical information system（GIS）with Geostatistics to contrast the content of soil available phosphorus in different times, had analyzed the characteristics of the spatio- temporal variability for more than 20 years and estimated the environment risk. Results showed that spatial distribution of soil available P varied remarkably in the 23 years＇ period from 1985 to 2000 and to 2008, on the whole showing a continuous rising trend. The averages of soil available P at the three times were 9.31, 23.11 and 33.31 mg kg-1. The theoretical semivariogram models of three times were different, 1985 was to fit Spherical model, 2000 was fit to Exponential model well, but 2008 was to fit Gaussian model well. Study by using Hesketh＇ theory of ＂break point＂ to combine the fact of Wenchang has showed that the binomial was the best appropriate equation. It＇s has been predicted that soil P eluviations will be more than 50 percent area of wenchang after 22 years, and will be more than 60 percent area in another 7 years.

关 键 词：有效磷 GIS 地统计 文昌市 

分 类 号：S159[农业科学—土壤学]