人口迁移与流动对我国各地区经济影响的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis on Impacts of Migration with and without Hukou Change on China's Provincial Economy

作　　者：杜小敏[1] 陈建宝[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《人口研究》2010年第3期77-88,共12页Population Research

基　　金：教育部人文社科重点研究基地基金项目“我国地区间收入分配差异与劳动力转移的经济增长效应分析”(07JJD790145);国家社科重大基金研究项目“扩大内需的宏观经济政策研究”(08&ZD034)的资助

摘　　要：在对近十年来我国人口迁移和流动的时空演变格局进行初步考察的基础上,文章利用面板数据的变系数模型分别实证考察了人口迁移和流动对我国各地区(省域)经济的影响。结果发现:(1)我国各地区间人口迁移相对平稳,而人口流动在2000年以后呈现出持续快速增长的态势,且空间流向极不均衡;(2)人口的迁移和流动对中国整体经济来说是一个帕累托改进;(3)户籍制度对于发达地区起到了人才沙漏的作用;(4)对于中部的绝大部分地区以及西部的一些人口输出大省,伴随人口迁出而引起的人力资本流失对当地经济的负面影响开始凸显出来,人口流出虽然基本出现一个正面影响,但对本地经济发展的贡献并不如我们预想的那么明显。Based on the preliminary investigation of spatial and temporal patterns of migration with and without hukou（i.e.,the household registration system）change and drawing on panel data in the past ten years,this paper uses random coefficient models to examine the impacts of migration on provincial economy growth in China.Analytical results show that：（a） migrations with hukou change across regions have been relatively stable,while migration without hukou change has increased rapidly and continuously since 2000 with extreme disparities across provinces;（b） the migration and mobility of the population is a Pareto improvement for China＇s overall economy;（c） hukou in developed areas plays a role as the hourglass;（d） for most central provinces and some western provinces with large-size of out-migration,the negative impact of the loss of human capital due to large-scale out-migration on local economy began to come out;although out-migration has in general a positive impact,its contribution to local economic development is not as obvious as we expected.

关 键 词：人口迁移 人口流动 变系数面板模型 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]