应用仿真模型模拟甲型H1N1流感的街道社区传播  

Study on the spread of influenza A （H1N1） under community based simulation model

作　　者：肖洪[1,2] 田怀玉[2] 赵暕[3] 李亚品[4] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学信息物理工程学院,长沙410083 [2]湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院 [3]北京大学医学部 [4]军事医学科学院微生物流行病研究所病原微生物生物安全国家重点实验室

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2010年第6期696-699,共4页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：湖南省重点学科建设项目（2008001）;国家自然科学基金（40971038）

摘　　要：采用可视化仿真模型对甲型H1N1流感在不同人口密度街道、社区的传播进行模拟仿真,探寻传播规律和特点,为采取合理防控措施提供科学依据.将全部人群按易感-感染-移出（SIR）模型划分为易感人群、感染人群和免疫人群,人群的年龄构成根据第五次人口普查基本情况设置,个体依据网络随机接触模型进行接触与运动,致死率与感染方式按照甲型H1N1流感医学描述进行设定.实例分析结果表明,感染率与社区街道人口密度有密切关系,疫情前期人口感染率增长速度较快,人口密度在50人/hm2以上的社区持续传播甲型H1N1流感的概率较大;对照组试验表明,在社区内接种疫苗可以有效地抑制甲型H1N1流感的传播.结论 ：人口密度、是否接种疫苗是甲型H1N1流感流行的危险因素.A simulation experiment was carried out by applying the simulation model to spread of influenza A （H1N1） in communities with different population density. Population at the community-level was divided into susceptible, infected and recovered ones, according to the susceptive-infective-removal （SIR） model, and the age structure of the population was set on the basis of data from the Fifth Population Census. Contact and moving of the individuals were based on the Network Random Contact Model and the mortality and infection mode were established in line with the influenza A （HINI） medical description. The results of an example analysis showed that the infection rate was closely related to the density of the community-based population while the rate on early infection grew rapidly. Influenza A （H1N1） seemed more likely to break out in the community with population density of over 50/hm^2. Comparative tests showed that vaccination could effectively restrain the spread of influenza A （H1N1） at the community level. Conclusion Population density, and the coverage of influenza vaccination were risk factors for influenza A （H1N1） epidemics. Results of the experiment showed of value, for prevention and vaccination on this topic.

关 键 词：甲型H1N1流感 仿真模型 易感-感染-移出模型 传播模拟 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]