基于CLUE-S模型的广州市土地利用格局动态模拟  

Dynamic simulation of land use pattern in Guangzhou based on CLUE-S model

作　　者：王健[1] 田光进[1] 全泉[1] 蒋晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2010年第6期1257-1262,共6页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2005CB724204);国家自然科学基金资助项目(40571060)

摘　　要：选取海拔、坡度、到河流距离、铁路距离等21个驱动因子,利用CLUE-S模型对广州市土地利用格局进行模拟,模拟结果与实际土地利用的Kappa系数为0.8014,具有较高可信度。利用模型对2010年广州市土地利用格局进行预测,模拟结果表明,耕地和水域分布主要受地形因素的影响,而林地受海拔高度影响更为明显。根据预测,2005—2010年广州市土地利用斑块数增加,土地利用格局进一步破碎化;土地利用斑块形状复杂程度降低,趋于简单;多样性指数略有升高。Twenty-one driving factors, including altitude, slope, distance to river, and distance to railway, etc. , were selected to simulate the dynamic land use pattern of Guangzhou based on CLUE-S model. The simulated results had a high reliability, with the Kappa coefficient being 0. 8014 to the actual situation. The prediction of the land use pattern in Guangzhou in 2010 showed that the distribution of cropland and water body would be mainly affected by topography, and forestland would be more affected by altitude. In 2005-2010, the land use patch number and the landscape fragmentation in Guangzhou would be increased,： the complexity of patch shape tended to be simplified, and the diversity index would have a slight increase.

关 键 词：土地利用动态格局 CLUE-S模型 驱动因子 广州市 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]