用随机漫步模型拟合1850年至2009年的全球气温变化(英文)  

Fitting of Global Temperature Change from 1850 to 2009 Using Random Walk Model

作　　者：严少敏[1] 吴光 

机构地区：[1]广西科学院国家非粮生物质能源工程技术研究中心,广西南宁530007 [2]深圳市追梦科技咨询有限公司,广东深圳518054

出　　处：《广西科学》2010年第2期148-150,共3页Guangxi Sciences

基　　金：supported by Guangxi Science Foundation(0907016,09322001 and 2010GXNSFA013046)

摘　　要：用随机漫步模型拟合全球气温变化的CRUTEM3数据系列。首先将1850年至2009年全球的平均气温转换为气温漫步,再用随机漫步模型直接拟合。结果显示,该模型能够拟合气温漫步和CRUTEM3数据系列。这为气温建模提供了一种新的模型,并且拟合结果也表明全球气温可能是随机变化的。The random walk model was used to fit the change of global temperature.First the CRUTEM3 global mean temperature time series from 1850 to 2009 were converted to the temperature walk,and then the random walk model was used to fit the converted data and real data,respectively.The results showed that the random walk model could fit both the temperature walk and CRUTEM3 temperature,which provided an alternative approach for modeling of temperature,and suggested that the global temperature change could be mainly due to the random mechanism.

关 键 词：全球变暖 模型 随机漫步 气温变化 CRUTEM3 

分 类 号：P423.35[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]