论短期气候预测的对象问题  

On the Predictand of Short-Term Climate Prediction

作　　者：王会军[1,2] 张颖[1,3,2] 郎咸梅[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [2]中国科学院气候变化研究中心,北京100029 [3]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2010年第3期225-228,共4页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"全球变暖背景下东亚能量和水分循环及其对我国极端气候的影响"(2009CB421406);国家自然科学基金项目40875048;40631005;公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY200906018

摘　　要：基于气候变化的物理过程和数学方面的考虑,讨论了短期气候预测的对象问题。短期气候预测对我国具有重大的经济和社会价值,但也是非常困难的科学难题和科学工程。传统的把气候距平作为预测对象的方法并不一定具有科学严谨性和应用上的高效性。因此提出把气候年际增量作为新的预测对象,并从数学物理考虑上进行了讨论。最后,基于一个气候模式的预测试验,实际检验了新的预测对象方案的效果。Based on the physical-mathematical considerations, the authors discussed the object of the short-term climate prediction. The short-term climate prediction has extremely important potential benefit for the economy and society, but is a very difficult scientific systematic work. Traditionally, the anomaly of a variable to its climatology has been used as the object of the shorvterm climate prediction. However, this approach does not necessarily con- tain physical-mathematical robustness. Considering that the current climate prediction skill, based on the above ap- proach, is quite limited, the authors proposed another approach, using the interannual increment of a variable as the predicting object. The authors also provides discussion on this approach from the physical-mathematical considera- tions, and validation of this approach based on a climate model prediction experiment.

关 键 词：短期气候预测 预测对象 气候距平 年际增量 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]