基于突变模型的突发事件视野下城市安全评估  

The Indexes,Model and Method for Urban Safety Assessment under Emergent Situation Based on the Catastrophe Model

作　　者：陈秋玲[1] 张青[1] 肖璐[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海大学国际工商与管理学院

出　　处：《管理学报》2010年第6期891-895,共5页Chinese Journal of Management

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金资助项目(07CSH004)

摘　　要：基于突发事件视角给出城市安全状况的逻辑框架,从社会安全、生产安全、公共卫生安全和生态环境安全层面设计城市安全度的4层4维评估指标体系结构;基于突变理论,确定城市安全状况的突变类型,建构测定城市安全度的突变模型,提出评估方法与步骤;最后,运用上述模型方法测定上海市的城市安全度。The paper firstly introduces the logical framework of the security situation in the city based on the perspective of emergency and designs the structure of four-dimensional evaluation index system of the degree of urban safety from the aspects of social safety,production safety,public health safety and environmental safety;Secondly,it proposes mutation types of the safety situation in the city based on catastrophe theory and constructs the catastrophe model to measure the degree of urban safety,then put forward assessment methods and procedures;Finally,the paper uses the model above to determine the degree of safety of Shanghai.

关 键 词：突变模型 突发事件 城市安全度 评估指标 评估方法 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学]