基于最优加权组合的甘肃金川矿14行风井变形预测  

Combined prediction model with optimum weight for No.14 shaft deformation in Jinchuan Mine,Gansu Province

作　　者：张亚民[1] 马凤山[1] 赵海军[1] 郭捷[1] 魏爱华[1] 巩城城[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所工程地质力学重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2010年第2期68-73,共6页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40972197;40702048);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目(KZCX2-YW-Q03-02)

摘　　要：金川14行风井直接关系到矿山的安全生产。本文建立了3种单一预测模型,并根据最优加权组合原理得到了最优加权组合预测模型。最优加权组合预测模型包含了单一模型的有效信息,提高了变形的预测精度。最优加权组合预测模型的模型精度与权重分配与单一模型的选取有关。作为一种短期预测模型,得出金川14行风井在近两个半年会保持稳态变形,不会出现大的突变。No.14 shaft is the key to the Jinchuan mine safety production.Three single prediction models were developed,a combined prediction model with optimum weight for No.14 shaft which contains effective informations of single model was built based on the optimal combined theory and prediction precision were improved accordingly.The precision and weight distribution are related to the selection of single model.As a short-term prediction model,the result shows that stable deformation instead of saltation will occur in the next two semesters.

关 键 词：最优加权组合 变形预测 竖井 金川矿 

分 类 号：TD853.11[矿业工程—金属矿开采]