风险的三维评价方法  

Three dimensional assessment method for risk

作　　者：黄沿波[1,2] 梁栋[1] 康雅乔[1] 柳红卫 

机构地区：[1]中山大学工学院安全工程研究中心,广东广州510006 [2]广东省安全生产科学技术研究所,广东广州510610

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2010年第3期88-93,共6页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAC13B03-0102)

摘　　要：目前已有多种方法可用于石化企业的风险定量评价,但是这些方法多数系基于二维风险分析,不能满足当今社会日趋增长的三维空间安全管理和风险评价的要求,因此,提出了三维风险场的评价理论,从三维风险等值面来考察风险的分布和风险变化率。该方法采用场论的基本知识,将风险场看作数量场,对不同事故的个体风险及其风险梯度进行叠加,得到个体风险及其变化率,并对个体风险在二维和三维坐标系中不同的空间分布进行了比较,并对该方法涉及到的经验参数和事故发生概率给出了相应的求解方法。Many methods of risk assessment have been used to assess quantitatively the risks in petrochemistry enterprises,but these methods are mainly based on two-dimensional（2D） risk analysis,and can not satisfy the requirements of safety management and risk assessment on increasing three dimensional（3D） spaces.So,this paper puts forward a assessment theory on 3D risk field.This theory uses contour surface of 3D to research the risk distribution and risk variable rate.It is based on field theory,takes the risk field as a quantity field,superposes the spatial distribution of individual risks of different accidences and their gradients,and gets the spatial distribution of individual risks and their risk variable rate.It compares the spatial distribution of individual risk in 2D and 3D coordinate systems.In this method,the solutions of some experience parameters and the accident probability are given.

关 键 词：风险场 风险梯度 个体风险 风险变化率 

分 类 号：X913.1[环境科学与工程—安全科学]