利用CNCPS V 5.0预测我国杂种肉牛日均增重的效果评价  

Evaluation of Average Daily Grain Predictions of the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System with crossbred Beef Cattle in China

作　　者：杜晋平[1,2] 邓代君[3] 杨小林[1] 张佳兰[1] 孟庆翔[2] 

机构地区：[1]长江大学动物科学学院,湖北荆州434025 [2]中国农业大学动物科技学院肉牛研究中心,北京100193 [3]新疆轻工职业技术学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830021

出　　处：《草食家畜》2010年第2期48-52,共5页Grass-Feeding Livestock

基　　金：国家支撑项目(No.2006BAD12B02-06和2008BADA7B04)资助

摘　　要：通过两个动物试验(子试验1和子试验2)比较了CNCPS模型预测的我国杂种肉牛日均增重(ADG)与实际观察值间的吻合程度,目的在于评估该模型是否适合于预测我国杂种肉牛日均增重。子试验1选用45头西门塔尔(♂)与蒙古牛(♀)杂交一代公牛随机分为3个组,每组15头;子试验2选用60头利木赞(♂)与福州牛(♀)杂交二代公牛,随机分为4个组,每组15头。各组中所有牛ADG实际观测平均值作为该组牛ADG观测值,随后对模型预测的结果与实际观测值进行了比较。结果表明:(1)子试验1中三组处理分别有60%、53%和40%的点落在-0.1至0.1kg/d的范围内,子试验2的四组处理分别有47%、80%、40%和93%的点落在-0.1至0.1kg/d的范围内,说明CNCPS较好地预测了我国杂种肉牛的ADG。(2)经线性回归分析,2个子试验中观察和预测的ADG间相关系数分别为0.82和0.76,具有较高的可信度;所有处理组的ADG误差均方根(RMSE)都较小。由此说明,CNCPS对中国杂种肉牛ADG具有较好的预测能力。Two separate animal trials（Sub-trial 1 and Sub-trial 2） were conducted to evaluate the coincidence of average daily gain（ADG） values predicted by CNCPS V 5.0 and observed actually.In Trial 1,45 growing Simmental（♂） × Mengolia（♀） crossbred F1 bulls were assigned to three treatments with 15 animals in each treatment.Trial 2 was conducted with 60 Limousin（♂） × Fuzhou（♀） crossbred F2 bulls allocated to 4 treatments.ADG for each bull was measured as a mean of each treatment.Subsequently,model predicted ADG were compared with these actually recorded results.The results showed that three treatments in Sub-trial 1 had 60%,53%,and 40% of predicted points fell within the range from-0.1 to 0.1 kg/d.Similarly,four treatments in Sub-trial 2,about 47%,80%,40%,and 93% predicted points fell within these ranges,respectively,suggesting that the CNCPS model can accurately predict ADG in these trials.By regression analysis,acceptable values of R2（R2=0.82 and 0.76 for trial 1 and trial 2,respectively） and small root mean square error（RMSE） values of all treatments were obtained.A small root mean square error（RMSE） results shown from the regression analysis indicated that the CNCPS model can be precisely used to predict ADG of China’s crossbreed beef cattle.

关 键 词：康奈尔净碳水化合物和蛋白质体系模型 杂种肉牛 日均增重 预测评估 

分 类 号：S823.92[农业科学—畜牧学]