甘南高寒草地放牧系统生态风险的AHP决策分析及管理对策  

Analysis of AHP strategic decisions for the ecological risk of grazing system and management decisions in an alpine meadow at Gannan,Gansu

作　　者：李文龙[1,2] 苏敏[3] 李自珍[3] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学草地农业科技学院,甘肃兰州730020 [2]农业部草地农业生态系统学重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [3]兰州大学数学与统计学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《草业学报》2010年第3期22-28,共7页Acta Prataculturae Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(30700100;30970491;30970478);教育部博士点基金项目青年项目(20070740031);甘肃省"十一五"科技支撑项目(0708NKCA121);国家863项目(2007AA10Z232)资助

摘　　要：本研究从生态经济学角度,系统探讨了制约高寒草地畜牧业可持续发展的主要风险因素及其时空变化特征,剖析了生态风险分析内涵,应用多层次的AHP(analytic hierarchy process)决策分析方法,对甘南玛曲高寒草地放牧系统的生态风险进行了综合评价分析。结果表明,在导致高寒草地植被退化、土地沙漠化的诸风险因素中,长期超载放牧是主要风险因素,其权重达0.4803;其次是全球气候变化造成的降水减少风险和鼠害、虫害风险,其权重分别为0.2902和0.1558;人类其他不当活动(挖药材、采矿等)的风险影响较小,其权重仅为0.0737。在研究区风险防范的诸管理措施中,围栏轮牧(降低放牧强度)措施和针对严重退化草地实施的补播、施肥、封育等综合措施的效果最佳,其相应组合权重分别为0.3060和0.2661;灭鼠和建植人工草地等措施均有一定的效果。基于上述风险评价分析,提出了高寒草地放牧系统生态风险防范的主要管理对策与措施,为草地资源保护与可持续利用提供定量依据。This study explored the primary risk factors restricting the development of stockbreeding and the characteristics of its varied temporal-spatial distribution in eco-economic terms.It further reveals the connotation of ecological risk analysis.Based on the multi-hierachy AHP strategic decision model,the ecological risks of a grazing management system in the alpine meadow at Maqu,Southern Gansu were comprehensively analyzed.Among the factors leading to the degeneration of vegetation and the formation of sandy soil,long-term overgrazing was the main factor,with a weighting of 0.480 3.The risk of reduction in rainfall from global climate change,mouse and insect pests,were weighted 0.290 2 and 0.155 8 respectively.Effects of other human improper activities （e.g.digging medicinal herbs and mining） were less important and weighted at only 0.073 7.Among the strategic measures of management,rotational grazing （to reduce the density of grazing）,reseeding,fertilization and enclosure for the degraded pasture showed the best effects,and the combination weightings were 0.306 0 and 0.266 1.Deratization and establishing artificial pasture also showed some effects.Based on the above risk evaluation analysis,the main management decision for a precautionary measure of the ecological risk was proposed,being quantitative support for meadow resource protection and sustainable development.

关 键 词：甘南高寒草地 放牧系统 生态风险 AHP模型 管理对策 

分 类 号：S812.8[农业科学—草业科学]