近48a台北市气温的小波分析  

Wavelet Analysis of Temperature Variations in Taibei During Last 48 Years

作　　者：秦丽[1,2] 张立凤[1] 骆凯[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象学院 [2]解放军94816部队气象中心 [3]解放军95072部队气象中心

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2010年第2期59-62,共4页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

摘　　要：利用Morlet小波分析了1961—2008年台北市年平均气温序列的小波变化特征,揭示了气温变化的多时间尺度结构,结果表明:台北市年平均气温存在多时间尺度的周期变化特征,有3个明显的特征时间尺度,分别是4 a、6-8 a和14-16 a;除14-16 a的时间尺度在整个研究时段都很明显外,其他尺度的周期阶段性都较强;以14-16 a的特征时间尺度为主周期;台北市的气温变化还表现出突变的特点;近48 a来,台北市年平均气温的气候倾向率为0.3℃/10 a,气温升高的趋势十分明显;未来2年气温在总趋势上升的前提下将处在一个偏冷期。Based on time series of annual average temperature of Taibei city from 1961 to 2008,changes in multi-time scale of temperature time series have probed with Morlet wavelet transform.The results show that the annual average temperature of Taibei city exits three evident characteristic time scale,with 4,6-8 and 14-16 year.The periodic variations of annual precipitation time series are localized in time domain except 14-16 years long term variations.The characteristic time scale of 14-16 year is dominant period.The temperature has abrupt changes.In last 48 years,the climate tendency rate of the annual average temperature in Taibei city is 0.3 ℃/10a,the elevatory trend is very patent.The annual average temperature of Taibei will be in cold period in the next 2 years.

关 键 词：台北 年平均气温 MORLET小波分析 周期变化 变化趋势 气候倾向率 

分 类 号：P423.33[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]