我国铁路运量波动的季节因素分析  

Analysis on Seasonal Factors of Railway Traff ic Volume Fluctuation in China

作　　者：桂文林[1] 潘庆年[1] 

机构地区：[1]惠州学院数学系,广东广州516007

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2010年第6期79-82,共4页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学基金(09E-04);广东省自然科学基金(9151051501000066);惠州市科技计划项目(2008P59)

摘　　要：铁路运量受气候条件、节假日、工农业生产和国民经济发展等因素影响,呈现出趋势性、季节性、随机性的复杂波动特征。通过对我国2002—2009年铁路客货运量月度数据进行分析,得到我国铁路客货运量具有明显的线性趋势和季节特征的结论,选择Holt-Winters模型进行数据拟合,具体分析铁路客货运量的季节特征与差异。Railway traffic volume presents a complex fluctuation featured by tendency,seasonality and randomness which are caused by weather conditions,holidays,industry and agriculture production,national economic growth and other factors.Through analyzing the monthly data of railway passenger and freight traffic volume from 2002 to 2009,this paper concludes that the railway passenger and freight traffic volume in China obviously show a linearity trend and seasonal characteristics.The paper also makes data fitting by using the Holt-Winters model and analyzes the seasonal characteristics and difference of railway passenger and freight traff ic volume.

关 键 词：铁路 客运量 货运量 Holt-Winter模型 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学] U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]