破裂时间法在云南小江断裂带强震预测中的应用  

The Application of Time-to-failure Method in Strong Earthquakes Prediction of Xiaojiang Fault Zone in Yunnan

作　　者：钱晓东[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,昆明650224

出　　处：《地震研究》2010年第2期138-146,共9页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：云南省重点项目"云南强震活动与板缘动力学机制研究(JCYB-20080601-4)";中国地震局"小江断裂带的中长期地震潜势定量研究"项目(200708035)资助

摘　　要：使用云南区域台网记录的地震目录资料,采用破裂时间法模拟前兆地震序列能量加速释放过程,系统研究了能量加速释放模型参数估计方法及强震位置搜索技术,详细推导了预测模型基本公式,对小江断裂带上发生的19次主震事件进行了模拟,结果表明:强震前能量加速现象是一种普遍现象,主震前,与主震相差2.5个震级单位的前兆序列出现能量加速释放所占的比例为80%;由前兆序列模拟得到的预测时间和震级与实际值很接近,主震震级预测精度约为±0.5级,预测主震发生时间误差约为±0.5年;搜索半径和搜索时间与主震震级成线性正相关关系;采用主震位置搜索技术,对小江断裂带未来中期6～7级强震可能危险区进行了预测。On the basis of earthquake catalog data recorded by Yunnan region network,using time-to-failure method,we simulated the process of Accelerating energy release of Precursory earthquake sequence.Systematic research of accelerating energy release of model parameter estimation method and strong earthquake location search technology.Derived the basic formula of prediction model.We simulated 19 times the main seismic events of Xiaojiang Fault Zone.The results show that the accelerating energy release before strong earthquakes is a universal phenomenon.Appears to accelerate the release of energy of precursor earthquake sequence of the difference between the main shock with 2.5 magnitude units as a proportion of 80%.Prediction time and magnitude which precursor sequence simulated with the actual value is very close to.The main earthquake magnitude prediction accuracy level of about ±0.5,time error of ±0.5 year.Search radius and the search time and the main earthquake magnitude is a linear positive correlation.Using the main shock location search technique to predict medium-term strong earthquake risk areas in Xiaojiang Fault Zone.

关 键 词：破裂时间法 能量加速释放 强震危险地点 位置搜索 小江断裂带 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]