气候变化和人类活动影响下西江梧州站降水径流演变研究  

Change of Precipitation and Runoff at Wuzhou Station on Xijiang River under Influence of Climate Changes and Human Activities

作　　者：朱颖洁[1,2] 郭纯青[1,2] 黄夏坤 

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学环境科学与工程学院,广西桂林541004 [2]桂林理工大学广西环境工程与保护评价重点实验室,广西桂林541004 [3]广西水文水资源梧州分局,广西梧州543001

出　　处：《水文》2010年第3期50-55,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：漓江流域上游河床仿真调度与防汛抗旱预报模型研究(桂科攻0816006-10);变化环境下的水文频率计算与研究-以漓江上游流域区为例(桂科能081Z004)

摘　　要：本文采用回归分析法、Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法、有序聚类分析法、均值检验法、小波分析对1946～2007年西江梧州站降水、径流时间序列的演变进行了综合分析,并运用Pearson相关分析法研究西江梧州站降水与径流的相关关系,最后,基于神经网络模拟的年径流结果,定量分析气候变化和人类活动对西江梧州站径流变化的影响程度。结果表明,年降水量变化趋势不明显,在1953年、1975年发生突变,存在2年、4年、12年和22年左右的周期;但年径流量有明显的下降趋势,倾向率达68.516亿m3/10a,在1952年发生突变,存在3年、16年和24年左右的周期;气候变化和人类活动影响下,气候变化是西江梧州站年径流量减少的主要原因。This paper analyzed the time series of precipitation and runoff at the Wuzhou Station on the Xijiang River from 1946 to 2007 with the methods of regression analysis,Mann-Kendall rank correlation test,sequential clustering analysis,mean value test method,wavelet analysis.And Pearson correlation analysis method was used to analyze the relationship between precipitation and runoff at the Wuzhou Station on the Xijiang River.Finally,based on the simulation results of annual runoff by neural network,a quantitative analysis was made on the influence of the climate changes and human activities on the runoff at the Wuzhou Station on the Xijiang River.The results show that annual precipitation has not an obvious trend,there are abrupt changes in 1953 and 1975,and cycles of 2 years,4 years,12 years and 22 years.However,annual runoff has a clear downward trend with trend proportion of 68.516m3/10a,there is an abrupt change in 1952,and cycles of 3 years,16 years and 24 years.As for the influences of climate changes and human activities,the influence of climate changes is the main reason of the decrease of the annual runoff at Wuzhou station on the Xijiang River.

关 键 词：气候变化 人类活动 小波分析 西江 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]