从中国和东亚国家全球供应竞争视角看人民币升值问题  

Can RMB Apreciate? From a Perspective of Global SupplyCompetition between China and East Asia

作　　者：陈志昂[1] 胡贤龙[2] 朱秋琪[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学金融学院 [2]浙江工商大学

出　　处：《亚太经济》2010年第3期101-106,共6页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"全球经济失衡与汇率和工资政策搭配"(项目号70973111);"人民币区域货币锚效应和人民币升值空间研究"(项目号70773104)的阶段性成果之一

摘　　要：本文实证研究显示,在我国劳动生产率大幅提升,单位劳动成本下降,名义汇率小幅上升的条件下,我国相对东亚四国的实际有效汇率大幅上升。其原因为东亚国家的名义汇率贬值,以及工资增幅与劳动生产率的提升脱钩。据此,我们认为人民币对发达国家货币具有升值条件,但受供应竞争的制约,并提出调节实际有效汇率的政策建议。From the perspective of global supply competition between China and East Asian countries, this paper analyzes the trends and causes of China and four East Asian countries＇ export competitiveness from 1990 to 2008 by building unit labor costs-based real effective exchange rate model. Empirical studies have shown that under the conditions of a substantial increase in China＇s labor productivity, decline of unit labor cost and a small increase in the nominal exchange rate, China＇s relative real effective exchange rate increases sharply against four countries in East Asia.

关 键 词：东亚经济 实际有效汇率 出口竞争力 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]