国际调停历史与策略的量化分析--兼析朝核问题六方会谈  

A Quantitative Analysis of International Mediation History,Strategy and Outcome:Some Proposals for the Beijing Six-Party Talks

作　　者：漆海霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学国际问题研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2010年第6期98-117,共20页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：国际调停是重要的国际争端解决机制之一。调停者在进行调停时,首先面临的重大问题就是在什么情况下采用什么策略,然而学者们对此尚未进行深入研究。以往的研究认为,国际调停结果受到调停者采用何种策略以及此前冲突管理结果这两个因素的影响。通过应用1945-1995年关于295场冲突的国际调停的数据库,作者以调停策略为核心自变量、此前冲突管理结果和调停者级别为控制变量、调停结果为因变量,建立了关于国际调停的线性回归模型。其中,由于调停策略是分类变量,为了避免多重共线性,作者用虚拟变量来处理三种调停策略。在根据统计数据得出的模型中,出人意料的是,调停者的级别对调停结果几乎没有影响。若此前没有进行冲突管理,则采用程序策略效果较好;若此前采用过冲突管理,则宜采用直接策略。因此,在朝核问题六方会谈中,中国的主要调停策略可以改用直接策略,加大赏罚的力度,而调停者级别可以维持现有水平。International mediation is one of the important conflict resolution regimes. The problem of using which strategy in what situation when mediator facing the conflict has long been an important field of study,yet surprisingly little we know about it. By using the database of international mediations on 295 international conflicts from 1945 to 1995,the author builds a linear regression model with mediation strategy as a core variable,previous conflict management outcome and mediator rank as control variables,and mediation outcome as a dependent variable. In order to avoid multi-collinearity,three kinds of mediation strategies are regarded as dummy variables. According to the model,to our surprise,mediator rank has little influence on mediation outcome; a procedural strategy is better when there is no previous conflict management,while a direct strategy is better otherwise. Therefore,the author suggests that in the Six-party talks,China can change its main strategy from procedural to direct strategy while the mediator rank remains the same.

关 键 词：国际调停 策略 朝鲜核问题 六方会谈 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]