Monte Carlo模拟法确定房地产报酬率  

Using Monte Carlo Simulation Method to Determine the Real Estate Reward Rate

作　　者：叶青[1] 刘穆英[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学土木工程学院,福建泉州362021

出　　处：《建筑经济》2010年第6期50-53,共4页Construction Economy

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金(2008J0196);泉州市科技项目(2009Z52)

摘　　要：Monte Carlo模拟法要求估价师根据各种影响报酬率因素的历史数据,确定影响因素的变动范围和变动趋势,利用概率密度函数和科学的迭代过程,合理判断出报酬率。应用Crystal Ball软件分析收集到的实际数据,检验Monte Carlo模拟法用于确定房地产报酬率的可行性,认为Monte Carlo模拟法可以作为确定收益报酬率的重要方法。Using Monte Carlo simulation method to decide the reward rate need appraisers first to determine the variation range and trend of the factors which have interference with the reward rate according to historical data, then use the probability density function and the scientific iterative process to give a reasonable result. In this paper, calculation model of capitalization rate based on the accumulated method is set up, the Crystal Ball is used. Through analysis of practical data, it proves that Monte Carlo simulation method can be an important method to determine the reward rate.

关 键 词：MONTE Carlo模拟法 概率密度函数 报酬率 累加法 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]